Menu

Social Simulations

Save the Future

, , , , ,

Franziska Gaupp

Franziska Gaupp

20 min read

27.12.2020

SAVE THE FUTURE

a long-termism experiment

It is widely understood today that the current economic paradigms of growth and industrialisation need to shift towards a more inclusive and sustainable way of thinking. We need a new system that addresses growing inequalities in society, accounts for negative externalities, such as environmental pollution, and that explores new types of governance, for example through empowering citizens in decision making.

A key component in this transition is a shift from valuing short-term gains and profits towards long-term thinking that includes the next generations’ wellbeing, too. In 2019, EIT Climate-KIC, Europe’s leading climate innovation initiative, launched a series of new large-scale projects, so-called ‘Deep Demonstrations’, to explore systems innovation for a greener, net-zero future. The portfolio of interventions includes education, citizen engagement, finance, policy and other levers of change that catalyse fast decarbonisation. Out of the eight Deep Demonstrations currently in operation, one is called the Long-termism project. In it, eleven expert partners focus on changing mindsets and explore ways to stimulate long-term thinking. To foster long-term oriented behaviours, mindsets, and action, they are trying to answer a set of questions. For example: ‘What new types of governance and rule-setting are needed to redesign institutional structures?’, ‘Can frontier technological prototypes be used to redefine our notions of value?’, ‘How can we use the power of collective movements to democratise rulemaking?’ and ‘In what way can data transparency and capacity building empower individuals?’.

Enabling collective action and opening new democratic spaces can create a groundswell of pressure for change. One way of doing this is through social and economic experimentations, for example in the form of social simulations. Social Simulations combine game elements with systems analysis, role playing, and simulation techniques. This way, they allow players to experience hypothetical events and scenarios. In this blog post, I introduce SAVE THE FUTURE. It is a simulation that seeks ways to transform the financial system by exploring alternative notions of value. For example, it employs ‘green tokens’ as a complementary currency. The simulation was developed for EIT Climate-KIC’s Long-termism project and has been tested and further improved by project partners and volunteers.

Alternative currencies for long-term thinking

Our current monetary system systematically encourages unsustainable behaviour patterns and threatens social and environmental sustainability. Because bank-debt money carries interest, the discounting of future costs and incomes inevitably leads to short-term thinking, as Bernard Litaer explains in the Club of Rome – EU Chapter report on money and sustainability. The process of compound interest (interest on interest) imposes exponential growth on the economy, which is, by necessity, unsustainable in a finite world. Furthermore, the set-up of our current financial system fosters wealth concentration and an increase in inequality. We need to re-think and shift the discourse around ‘money’. We need to empower individuals to recognize the current monetary system as a systemic cause for short-termism, inequality, and unsustainability. One popular, practical solution to this problem is complementing the prevailing monetary monopoly with a ‘monetary ecosystem’. The information and communication revolution that we are experiencing today, with innovations like the blockchain technology, can help us in this. Because they are open-source, such technologies prove it is possible to create pressure for change by enabling pioneers to take collective action and create alternative designs. ‘Emerging democratic socio-ecological money system(s) empower individuals by offering mechanisms for adequate resource allocation and behaviour change aligned with incentives.’ says Dr. Marcus Dapp, a cryptoeconomics expert at ETH Zurich and one of our Long-termism project partners. Although such a solution profoundly challenges the dominant fiat currency system, it can grow independently through addressing daily challenges faced by communities. For instance, it could adjust resource allocation to local needs. Over time, it could become a self-sustaining, resilient, less manipulable network of digital money and assets.

Within the Long-termism Deep Demonstration, the Centre for Systems Solutions developed the policy simulation SAVE THE FUTURE as a tool for testing various institutional and policy solutions that could be combined into an alternative, more sustainable and long-term focused financial system. The simulation is set in a stylized world, where players (divided into government, investors, and entrepreneurs) make choices about industrial investments, international trade, social development, and environmental management. In the process, they try to balance their own short-term goals with such long-term consequences for their country and surrounding lands as water pollution or wasteland creation. The simulation introduces new economic ideas, such as alternative currencies, to explore if and how they would shape the economic choices of participants.

Stock market in the Save the Future simulation

Stock market in the Save the Future simulation

Implementing a ‘green currency’

SAVE THE FUTURE includes two countries, Kenorland and Vespugia. The countries have a conventional currency but can introduce, through their government players, a green, alternative one. The alternative currency design in the simulation is inspired by existing complementary currencies, such as the ECO, which mobilise resources in order to reduce climate change impact and support sustainable behaviour. The green currency is a token currency, complementary to the conventional one. Its goal is to shift the players’ behaviour towards more sustainable actions, such as wasteland regeneration. The green currency in SAVE THE FUTURE is implemented by the national government and can be compared to an environmental tax or a green subsidy. The government player is able to raise and decrease the costs and benefits of certain actions that are or need to be paid for in green currency. The alternative green currency is tied to the country’s currency in a ratio of 1:1. In any operation where alternative currency is allowed, the system first tries to use this alternative currency and in the second step complement it with the regular currency. Actions that generate green currency, which is then paid out to players, include wasteland regeneration, closing a pollution facility, starting a clean tech facility, or investing in R&D in clean technologies. Actions that lead to the removal of green currency tokens from the players business accounts are pollution, GHG emissions, natural area removals. Each entity (businesses, investors, or government) has an additional account for the new, green currency. The government can decide on its own whether to accept taxes in the alternative currency. Likewise, each organization (businesses and investors) can decide whether to accept payments in the alternative currency. To give players the opportunity to experience the value of alternative currencies, the game is divided into two periods: In the first part, there is only one currency. As entrepreneurs build facilities, pollution increases, wastelands spread, water gets contaminated, and wellbeing in the cities decreases. Then, the game is paused, and all players are called into a ‘town hall meeting’ on Zoom to discuss the current economic and environmental situation. The game moderators reveal the option to introduce an alternative, green currency. The players decide if the government should introduce it. In the second part of the simulation, players can experience how the introduction of a green currency changes the economy and the behaviour of the players.

The simulations conducted so far show that people take greater care of wastelands after the green currency, which enables profiting from environmental restoration, is introduced. The simulations revealed clearly that alternative currencies and their design do influence our behaviour in a desired way. We should take advantage of this discovery and use money and the financial system to help us transition towards a net-zero emission future.

effectivness-of-games

,

Michał Pająk

Michał Pająk

25 min read

02.01.2020

Effectiveness of social simulations and serious games.

Although the majority of our daily activities at the Centre for Systems Solutions is connected with developing serious games and social simulations, we do not consider them as the main goal of our organization. Such activities are solely the means, not the end we are trying to achieve. We believe that using social simulations enables participants to get a real first-hand experience of tackling difficult problems. This creates a new understanding of interdependencies, relations, and complexity behind systems that they are part of in real life. But is it really the case? Does using social simulations actually matter and may lead to tangible changes in participants\’ lives or in their everyday work? To check if our tools positively affect participants and their understanding of complex reality, we regularly conduct an evaluation of the participants’ results. Addressing users’ comments and suggestions helps us improve our social simulations and learn more about their effectiveness as educational or awareness-raising tools. So far, the Centre for Systems Solutions conducted two major evaluations on large groups of participants. 

 

The first one constituted the part of the project \’Green games. Libraries and non-governmental organizations involve youth in the game for nature\’. The objective of the project was to increase the level of knowledge among young people about biodiversity, climate change, and the economic value of ecosystems. To reach the aim, we invited librarians and workers of non-governmental organizations in Poland and equipped them with tools (climate change-related board and online games) and know-how to prepare for and lead a game-based workshop with youth. Further, to check if playing the games enabled youth to gain a better understanding of environmental issues and inspired them to learn more about such topics, we asked them to answer pre- and post-game questionnaires. 

 

We were able to get 3372 responses from young people between the ages of 15 and 19. We found out that after playing the game, 84% of the participants reported an increase in general knowledge about environmental issues. Out of this, 46.1% responders considered this increase as substantial. Similar results were obtained in reference to the questions about biodiversity and climate change-related knowledge acquisition. In the case of biodiversity awareness, 84.8% participants reported some knowledge increase, out of which 50.5% assessed it as substantial. In the case of climate change awareness, the corresponding values were 78.8% and 43%.

Self-reported-increase-in-knowledge

Furthermore, we asked participants how they evaluated their increase in knowledge, understanding, and interest in environmental issues. Only 11.17% of the respondents felt that the workshop gave them no new insights or sparked no interest in these topics. This means that 88.83% of participants learned something new or got inspired to learn more about environmental issues after playing the game.

Self-reported-increase-in-uderstanding-and-interest-about-environmental-issues

Finally, we compared the number of participants who responded that they had had no previous interest in environmental issues and felt that this topic is not worth any attention to the number of respondents that held the same opinion after playing the game. It turned out that out of 226 people with the highly negative attitude toward this topic, 38 were inspired to find out more information about this field after playing the game.

Change-in-interest

The second evaluation was connected with the project \’New Earth – Catholic Church educators increase the climate sensibility among students and believers.\’ The project’s objective was to embed climate change-related issues in a durable and accessible tool that would be used by Catholic educators. We developed thus Laudato Si – a pro-ecological board game inspired by the second encyclical of Pope Francis, and a set of additional educational materials. Further, we compared questionnaire responses of school students that took part in Laudato Si-based lessons (1398 participants) against the replies obtained from the control group (806 students).

 

We found out that in the control group (who had no contact with the game and educational materials), only 62% of respondents believed that human activity affects climate change. 37% of interviewees were skeptical of this connection, had no opinion or denied climate change in general. Meanwhile, in the group exposed to the game, 77% responders were convinced that climate change is real and that it is affected by people.

Opinions-about-climate-change-and-its-origins

What is more, participants who had the opportunity to play Laudato Si as a part of the lesson, felt that climate change is a much more serious matter than the students from the control group.

Perceived-seriousness-of-climate-change

An important aspect of the research was to find out whether young people feel that their own actions can have an impact on the environment and climate change. According to their responses, 64% of the Laudato Si players believed that their actions matter, with only 34% doubting that an individual can do anything to control the negative environmental impacts. Meanwhile, in the control group, only 54% of the people believed that they have influence, and 37% were convinced that they, on their own, cannot do anything.

Opinion-about-one's-influence-on-climate-change

These results show that social simulations do have an influence on participants. We can clearly see that they affect the knowledge of participants and their understanding of environmental issues. This makes us optimistic about the positive consequences of using social simulations and gives us the motivation to improve our products to be more effective and impactful. Still, we understand that further research is needed to assess the long-term effects of changes that we observed in participants\’ responses. This would require involving a large number of participants and more elaborate means of measuring the effects of social simulations. We believe that the results of such research would enable us to make our workshops even more effective. As was mentioned at the beginning, we continuously put our effort to create better tools to reach our goal. 

energy-transition-game

, , , ,

Michał Pająk

Michał Pająk

10 min read

12.09.2019

The future starts now 

experiencing scenarios for energy transition through a social simulation

In many countries worldwide, the topic of energy transition seems to be highly charged. The array of challenges connected to this process embraces a clash of worldviews, controversies over the efficiency of existing technologies, legitimacy and quality of planned and implemented policies, disputes over the \”right\” energy mix as well as other complex economic and social issues. Yet, the transition will inevitably have to be introduced soon, and both the process and the time framework of the change are the key to success. To add to this heated discussion and to suggest a way forward, the Centre for Systems Solutions, in collaboration with Wuppertal Institute and Thema1, has developed the Energy Transition Game.

The reality of simulation

The activity can be described as a social simulation—a type of face-to-face serious game for a large group of people that engages them in mock negotiation, confrontation and decision-making. In this particular case, participants step into the shoes of ministries, energy producers, technology startups, energy providers, and NGOs. Thrust into the harsh reality of the energy transformation, they don’t only have to deal with the associated technical complexity but also learn to manage complicated relations between each other\’s conflicting ideas and agendas. 

What they discover, wading through a seemingly endless list of emergencies to address, is that transformation is not a lonely business and, to lead it successfully, they have to step out of their silos and start working together. This revelation does not come instantly, of course. At the beginning many players are motivated mostly by personal gains. For example, in the initial rounds, energy producers often show no interest in the natural environment protection, investing in facilities that can ensure them stable profits rather than relying on uncertain sun- or wind-dependant energy sources. Such an attitude usually meets with severe public censure. NGOs’ representatives call for financial sanctions against such practices and demand more sustainable solutions being introduced. However, green technologies proposed by technology start-ups are often counter-effective, as they still depend on outdated infrastructure. This, in turn, has to be addressed by the government that – as you may suspect – doesn’t have enough budget to modernize it. So what is their strategy? Raising energy prices! And this is how the vicious circle continues.

Looking for solutions

With its lively dynamics, The Energy Transition Game gives room for collective problem solving and testing available options with their associated impacts on economy, ecology or society. The in-game world’s mechanisms mirror the most important features of our real world, making it easier for players to draw meaningful conclusions that may be furthered applied to solve real, not only simulated, challenges. For example, when played by policy-makers, it may help them anticipate potential trade-offs and delineate possible mitigation measures. How? By simply experiencing them, either through the games’ mechanics or through other participants’ feedback. Unlike in real life, however, such testing is safe and not linked to any fatal repercussions. It may thus serve to chart a desired course of action and prepare for plausible stumbling blocks. For this purpose, the Energy Transition Game has been successfully used at  multiple workshops organized, among others, with Estonian Ministry of Environment, German Environment Ministry, Wuppertal Institute, Climate-KIC, Systems Innovation Lab.

Green technologies proposed by technology start-ups are often counter-effective, as they still depend on outdated infrastructur. On the picture: a card representing prosumer solar energy production.
Green technologies proposed by technology start-ups are often counter-effective, as they still depend on outdated infrastructur. On the picture: a card representing prosumer solar energy production.

Real experience from simulated realities

Although the simulation was designed to depict the problem of energy transition, it can also be used in other contexts. For example to address technical and social aspects of complex processes, such as multilateral agreements or coordination of joint initiatives where stakeholders of different backgrounds and values meet, etc. The Energy Transition Game encourages \’out-of-the-box\’ thinking, negotiation and mediation skills. By and large, it is a great tool to display problems and dilemmas emerging from complex, coupled systems that encompass environmental, social, economic and technical elements and interactions between them.

The-Word's_future

, , ,

Aleksandra Solińska-Nowak

Aleksandra Solińska-Nowak

Amanda Anthony

Amanda Anthony

20 min read

02.01.2019

The World’s Future is in our hands

How can we use the social simulation to address the biggest problem facing us today?

The world is running out of time and carbon budgets

When the International Panel on Climate Change released its report in October 2018 about necessary actions to limit or reverse the impact of our behavior on the environment, it also gave us a timeline to do so: 12 years. In 12 years, if we continue to produce carbon dioxide at the same pace we have been, we will have “spent” our entire carbon budget and the global average temperature will rise by 1.5-2۫°C. From a climate perspective, this is significant enough. In the context of the Sustainable Development Goals, though, a 1.5°C rise in temperature has far-reaching consequences.

Although 1.5°C may not sound like a lot, the speed at which the temperature has risen is the main cause for concern. The faster we spend our carbon budget, the less time we have to adapt to the new, hotter reality. It’s less time to save coastal cities from being flooded by rising ocean and sea waters, less time to adapt existing infrastructure for more frequent and severe weather, and less time to adapt our agriculture to grow in hotter, drier conditions. These direct impacts have peripheral impacts, too. More droughts and less adaptable crops mean more hunger and more poverty. Human displacement from flooded cities leads to more inequality and worse health and well-being. Rising temperatures affect life on land and life on water – wiping out fragile ecosystems and biodiversity. More poverty, more inequality, lower-quality life on land and underwater – without action, we will regress on achieving a number of Sustainable Development Goals.

Why are we inactive?

“If we don’t take action, the collapse of our civilisations is on the horizon.” said Sir David Attenborough at the UN climate change summit in Poland. This is only one of many public calls for action that has been repeatedly occurring in media over the last decades. And yet, since the Paris agreement in 2015 that obliged world leaders to keep the global temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, no major shifts have occurred in our production and consumption trends. Why? Does humanity consciously choose to follow a path to self-destruction?  

The answer to the question is not easy, as the battle over climate change is a battle between knowledge and practice, good will and money, science and politics. Singularly, they are a challenge; together, these challenges compound. Let\’s have a closer look at some examples.

Knowledge does not mean understanding

As early as the 1960s, the first computer models of the world’s climate supported the idea that the growth of greenhouse gases would contribute to warming. In 1988, James Hansen, the former NASA scientist, testified before Congress on anthropogenic climate change, raising public awareness of global warming, and advocating action to avoid its negative impacts.

We know the threats; we have possessed the necessary knowledge for at least 30 years, yet we somehow cannot render it into practice. What we do is present and address climate change and related impacts on the Sustainable Development Goal as something linear and gradual. It’s as if they were a box of chocolates from which we could pick one with no consequences. Let\’s address the world\’s atmosphere today! Or eradicate poverty!

Of course, real-world systems never work like that. They are more like a Jenga tower – each building block depends on another, together creating a highly complex and fragile structure. Moving one block only seems easy, and any false move can trigger a violent reaction that affects the whole tower.

Want a more real-life example? Think about the ocean. Covering around 70% of the Earth’s surface, it plays a crucial role in controlling the climate and the oxygen we breathe. Without a healthy ocean, we don\’t have a healthy planet. Yet, over the past hundred years, the average surface temperature of the seas has risen by about 0.9°C (1.6°F), damaging many fish habitats and causing fish species to move to cooler waters. As a result, warming oceans are affecting fish stocks in some areas, reducing catches and thus directly influencing people who rely on fishing as their main source of income or food. Ocean warming also impacts human health as pathogens spread more easily in warmer waters. This isn’t even mentioning its effects on the weather and the possibility of more severe and frequent extreme phenomena, such as hurricanes, increased rainfall or floods.

Change requires trade-offs

The ocean is only one of many life support systems that humanity depends on. There are other, no less complex ones, including soils, ice, the pattern of winds and currents, pollinators, and biological diversity. They are all interconnected, and if one fails, who knows what will happen to our Jenga tower? 

The Sustainable Development Goals offer a way to address these interlinked systems and balance social well-being, economic prosperity and environmental protection. Crucial to their pursuit is, however, our collective effort to achieve net-zero carbon emissions. No matter what politicians say, this won’t happen without necessary trade-offs, as some of the best solutions may have negative impacts on certain segments of society, based on where they live and how they make a living. Afforestation and bioenergy, for example, may compete with agriculture and food production. The example of the yellow jacket movement protests in France shows how policy aimed at lowering national dependence on fossil fuels may negatively affect the middle class and trigger social unrest on an unpredicted scale. 

The choices to be made are not easy, as the short-term gains have to be weighed against long-term, yet often uncertain and initially costly, change. Will politicians be able to make the trade-offs? Will the general public be able to accept them?

How to bridge this enormous gap between science and policy? How to help the general public, policymakers and businesses understand both the urgency and the complexity of the situation, and get on board with taking direct action? The World’s Future simulation has been created to address this challenge.

The World\'s Future

How to bridge this enormous gap between science and policy? How to help the general public, policymakers and businesses understand both the urgency and the complexity of the situation, and get on board with taking direct action? The World’s Future simulation has been created to address this challenge.

Predatory delay

Short-term gains are a particular problem, as it is common knowledge that in countries all over the world, politics and business are intertwined. Business influences what policies are made; policy influences the way business is done. Such dependencies may thwart rational decision-making as the short-term interests of business oligarchs often stand in opposition to the long-term well-being of society. This also explains why quitting coal is so difficult despite our possessing the knowledge and the technology to do so.


Black gold, although the most polluting of fossil fuels, is still the cheapest, is still underground and still offers an easy path to a lucrative business. Large companies, often subsidized by powerful governments are thus in a rush to expand their markets before coal is taken over by increasingly affordable renewables. Such an attitude, referred to as the “predatory delay” by the environmental writer Alex Steffen is reflected in the decisions of many world leaders. Donald Trump has announced to withdraw the USA – a country that is historically responsible for the most emissions in the world – from the Paris agreement. In Brazil, the newly elected president, Jair Bolsonaro, is ready to sacrifice the Amazon rainforest to agribusiness. Most recently, the Polish president, Andrzej Duda, defended the country\’s reliance on coal, stating at the UN climate change summit in Katowice that: \”The use of one\’s own natural resources, in Poland\’s case on coal, and basing energy security on them is not in conflict with the climate protection and with progress in climate protection.\”

Way to overcome the impasse

How to bridge this enormous gap between science and policy? How to help the general public, policymakers and businesses understand both the urgency and the complexity of the situation, and get on board with taking direct action?

The World’s Future simulation has been created to address this challenge. In this experience, participants become country leaders and collaboratively steer the fictional world from now till around 2030. As players make virtual decisions on their country\’s energy mix, R&D expenditures, environmental policy, and socio-economic growth, they get a very realistic feel of what may happen if we don’t take climate change seriously.

We intentionally chose the name for the simulation to move players from the sphere of abstraction and make them feel real responsibility for what may become our world’s future,” explains Michalina Kułakowska, one of the game designers. However they use their power will soon materialize, either in the form of simulated catastrophe or – quite the contrary – an innovative idea that may enhance a successful transformation.

The simulation, based on the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals, may be played in person or online, in both cases actively engaging players in revealing the interconnections between the global goals. With the “big picture” displayed, the most pressing challenges of our time become more tangible, easier to embrace and address:


It really helps to better understand the complexity of the ‘real world’, why changes are so slow, why solutions are not put into place, why international cooperation is so complicated. 

–  Participant of The World’s Future session, October 2018, Switzerland (FiBL)

What awaits players? Temptations, short-term gains and personal interests may come into play. There may be disappointment and frustration over negative repercussions of what seemed like a silver bullet. Tough negotiations and difficult compromises can be compensated with a groundbreaking solution:

The game translates a lot of knowledge and, in this particular case, threats into quite lively experiences. These last much longer in the minds of the players than the same information in the form of books.

 – Participant of The World’s Future session, October 2018, Wuppertal Institute

 

The array of emotions triggered by play is hard to describe. Real experience is always better than words, thus we encourage you to check “The World’s Future” for yourself. Visit its website or contact us to immerse in a truly transformative experience and gain an impetus for real action! 

The Prince

,

Aleksandra Solińska-Nowak

Aleksandra Solińska-Nowak

Piotr Magnuszewski

Piotr Magnuszewski

20 min read

12.09.2018

Learn how social simulations help navigate complexity

In what way are social simulations different from educational games?

What is a social simulation?

A social simulation is similar to a multiplayer serious game in which direct communication between players is strongly highlighted. The word “serious,” which appears in the definition, suggests that the focus of such a game is not on entertainment (although social simulations are often fun) but on a serious goal (or set of goals). How you define a serious goal would depend on your specific need as a game user, but it may be, e.g., awareness raising, professional training, strategy development or learning. Here, at the Centre for Systems Solutions, we develop social simulations that may be applied to as diverse settings as education, business or organization management, social projects, policy-making and many more. Also our audiences vary significantly, embracing school children and students, educators, NGOs’ staff, CEOs or public administration employees, to name just a few.

A serious game targeted at business managers who face the challenges of transformation towards sustainable development and socially responsible business - is an example of a serious educational game with elements of simulation.

Green & Great

A serious game targeted at business managers who face the challenges of transformation towards sustainable development and socially responsible business – is an example of a serious educational game with elements of simulation.

How do social simulations work?

Social simulations combine many elements of both formal science and humanities, including systems analysis and simulation techniques, storytelling, group scenario building, and role-playing. Most importantly, social simulations give room for confronting people from different professional and personal backgrounds in a simulated setting that mirrors the dynamics of real-life challenges. How? By recreating a complex net of social relationships via roles and problem cards, and building a fully operational in-game world, whose elements (boards, tokens, etc.) mark its borders. As a result, a realistic representation of a challenge emerges (e.g. players striving to undertake the transition to renewables or preventing negative impacts of a forecasted flood), and a group may engage in a collective action of analyzing and exploring it from a number of perspectives. The safe environment of simulation makes it possible for them to brainstorm and come up with and pre-test various solutions and strategies.

A special type of social simulation, a strategic simulation (also known as a policy exercise), may also be designed and applied to collaboratively diagnose, analyze and solve a specific real-life problem requiring strategic decision-making. In this type of activity, the effort is directed not on simulating any abstract problem but on collecting and organizing real data to engage participants (e.g. policy-makers or company employees) in a collaborative process of building a model which is adequate to their specific context. Therefore, unlike social simulations, which may be applied to many contexts and played by various groups of stakeholders, strategic simulations are always problem-specific and user-tailored, and their success is measured by the emergence of a collaboratively negotiated, realistic and doable strategy to overcome an identified obstacle.

Why are social simulations effective?

Facilitating multi-party experience, such as social and strategy simulations, is the capacity to collect relevant information, prepare a model and design a process in which different groups of people are able to share and contest their knowledge, ideas, values and perspectives. This effort pays off because, unlike traditional top-down planning-implementation models, social simulations offer space for joint practices, experiments and communicative processes during which the participants:

Gain a better cognition of complex problems

When faced with a problem, each person approaches it from their individual perspective, highlighting different aspects of the same input. A pioneer of systems thinking, Russell Ackoff, once provided a good anecdote to illustrate this cognitive bias. A group of people were chit chatting in one of the flats in a townhouse when a tragic message reached them: while climbing the stairs, their elderly neighbor got a fatal heart attack. Devastated as they were at the news, their started to quarrel about the misfortunate event. The first speaker blamed it all on the road service; the city was congested and the ambulance must have got stuck in a traffic jam. The second was firmly convinced that the problem lay in the underfinanced health care – there were not enough ambulances, so the help was delivered too late. Yet another person drew attention to the fact that the accident wouldn’t have happened if there had been an elevator in the building. In fact, all of them were right, but they didn\’t manage to put together the scattered puzzle pieces of information to reveal the “big picture.”

Bouwen and Taillieu (2004) describe such a failure to “gather the pieces” using the kaleidoscope metaphor: Often it happens that people look at the same elements, yet they all have their particular view and are convinced that it is the only perspective possible. Social simulations offer a solution here. By simulating real situations, they act like a mirror, reflecting challenges existing in the real world. However, in real life, grasping the complex nature of a problem requires in-depth multi-faceted analysis and the collaboration of many experts. Meanwhile, simulation compresses time and space, giving room for testing strategies, taking decisions and experiencing their impacts. In this way, previously obscure interdependencies become displayed and the totality of the problem revealed.

Come in contact with a variety of stakeholders

Complex problems require insight, tacit knowledge, cooperation and expertise from a number of independent specialists. Let’s take energy transition, for example. With growing climate risks and scarcity of fossil fuels, most of us realize that the world must switch to sustainable energy systems soon. However, little is known how to handle this task fast, effectively and – most importantly – globally, across countries with different economic, political and environment systems. Examples from places where energy transition is already very advanced (for example Hawaii or Germany) have shown that the process entails a lot of interdependent challenges (blackouts, excessive energy production, costly investments in innovations, taxpayers’ protests, etc.).

Each party entering into such a collaborative problem solving process obviously wishes to address the situation, but at the same time, each has its own way of framing it (Bouwen and Tallieu 2004). Environmentalists are interested in long-term environmental impacts, factory owners perceive the problem from their ‘profitability’ standpoint, whereas politicians would contribute from their ‘public exposure of political action’ frame, etc. (Bouwen and Tallieu 2004). All the stakeholders thus rely on their particular interest and expert knowledge connected to a challenge, and the most difficult task is to make them notice, understand and appreciate this variety of inputs and accommodate them to form a shared understanding. If they don’t find a common language, they most surely start to shift the blame onto somebody else; it was the prime minister who decided to close the factory and left thousands people unemployed or it was the energy provider who caused blackouts…,

Social simulations help overcome such communication problems. A social simulation is “a hybrid, ‘multilogue’ (as opposed to a dialogue) communication form, … a language for complexity for the future, allowing many persons with different perspectives to be in contact with each other, using different forms of communication in parallel” (Guerts et al. 2007). During a simulation, strangers, opponents, experts and laymen are made to interact with each other in a shared, safe environment. They are not bound to any particular mode of communication. On the contrary, they are free to rely on whatever interaction pattern they believe matches their current need (be it pairwork, open group discussion or temporary allies with a couple of players). In this way, they may confront opposing views, exchange experiences and perspectives. This face-to-face contact with other people helps them bridge gaps and build the trust required to come up with a common definition of a problem, which becomes the starting point for developing a negotiated, shared strategy.

Release their creative potential

As part of bigger systems, such as families, corporations or states, people tend to assume social roles that, to a certain extent, determine our expectations of what appropriate or desired behaviour is. For example, a father of three should, most certainly, work hard to support his family rather than spending his day in front of the TV.
Social roles are useful because they help us recognize our tasks and responsibilities. However, the limiting borders of what we assume is expected from or imposed on us by society may negatively affect our creative capacity, bounding us to ineffective yet already tested strategies.

Meanwhile, playing liberates. Entering an in-game world in new, fake roles, players can break free from their “shoulds” and “musts” and open their minds to creative exploration of solutions that they hadn’t previously been aware of.

Social simulations trigger creativity and provoke stakeholders to test it in practice. The simulated reality does not entail fatal consequences, thus even the most revolutionary hypothesis may be verified and its consequences become instantly evident. Although not always satisfactory, each result triggers novel alternatives, challenging role-players to reach beyond what has already been tested and explore new pathways into the unknown. In this way participants discover that the productive potential required for any change is already in them, and all they have to do is find courage to use it.

Learn how to make consensus

Taking on a new role has yet another advantage, as it enables role-shifting and triggers empathy for others. Need an example? Let’s look at one of our simulations, the Energy Transition Game (ETG). Imagine that you have no experience whatsoever in leading a transformation process. And your regular job is, let’s say, in accounting. But now, as a technological startup manager, you find yourself negotiating a subsidy with the government representative and deliberating on your country’s future energy mix. Neither of you know the future and you both may feel uneasy investing in expensive innovative technologies that may not generate returns anytime soon. Yet, the game mechanics require you to take a decision or you hinder your fictional country’s development.

Role-shifting often helps people step out from their regular framework and better understand other people’s perspectives. I know it is hard but we have to decide on something or I will share my budget to support your idea, if you decide to reduce emissions. During such a framing-reframing process, participants actively experiment with new ideas, concepts and emotions to find more positive alternatives, which sets the stage for negotiating a consensus among different parties.

The consensus we are talking about does not mean that everyone will necessarily find the solution completely satisfying. It means, however, that it has been negotiated and accepted by all parties with the acknowledgement of each other’s independent worldviews, interests, inputs and responsibilities.

Thanks to social simulations, such as e.g. Energy Transition Game (ETG), people may find themselves in completely new roles.
Become motivated to act

Games and other activities allowing self-expression, such as music, painting or telling stories, are intrinsic to our culture (Zimmerman 2013). Why? Because they rely on inquisitiveness. Children don’t have to be encouraged to play – they do it out of their inborn curiosity, which tells them to take an object and explore its functions and mechanisms until they learn all about it. Consequently, by tinkering with “transitional objects”’, such as toys and games, people get to know the environment they live in (Guerts et al. 2007).

Yet, games play one more key role in human life. Since ancient times, they served as rituals to challenge fate and to dispel anxiety about things yet to come. The symbolic act of collective fighting against the ‘ghosts of the future’ helped ancient people strengthen social ties, create a sense of solidarity and realize that they all have certain responsibility in ensuring safety and wellbeing to their community (Geurts et al. 2007). Social simulations build on this tradition. By testing different scenarios and approaches to a problem, participants take a “virtual look into the future”, exploring potential adversities or obstacles on their way. As a result, they gain a better understanding of their specific challenge and their responsibility towards it, realizing that they have enough experience, knowledge and determination to face it in real life (Guerts et al. 2007).

Social simulations must be well-researched and based on transparent sources. They help us understand each other and allow us to leave the cage of our opinions and views. Their aim is not to impose opinions on people but to help them come up with new solutions via self-reflection.

water-energy-nexus

, , , , , ,

Aleksandra Solińska-Nowak

Aleksandra Solińska-Nowak

20 min read

17.07.2018

Understanding The Nexus Approach

The nexus approach

The Latin term „nexus” refers to the act of binding something together. The concept was first mentioned in the context of resource management in 1980s, especially in connection with the UN University Food-Energy Nexus programme. It was not until the Bonn2011 Nexus Conference, however, that the nexus approach gained relevant prominence. Guided by the principle of integrating management and governance across sectors and scales, the conference argued that the nexus approach can improve water, energy and food security, at the same time supporting the transition to a green economy, which is expected to increase resource efficiency and provide greater policy coherence. 

The need for a more integrated, holistic approach both to the resource management and to the global policy in general became even more undisputable with the adaptation of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in 2015. To simultaneously address the 17 major priorities, ranging from poverty and hunger alleviation, gender equality, industry development to sustainable production and environment protection, we are all required to recognize the interrelatedness and interdependence of these, partially overlapping or competing, goals, and to grasp the complex net of interactions, trade-offs and synergies that they create. Advancing towards a more stable and sustainable future depends thus on the “nexus thinking” or “systems thinking” that, instead of just looking at individual components and short-term quantitative outcomes, recognizes feedbacks and connections, and promotes concerted action and cooperation on a global scale across sectors, time and space. 


From time to time a woman in black approaches each department, passing them a thick pile of documents. Upon her arrival, the group discussions become even more stormy. It means that a new problem or request has been submitted by the society. Departments’ heads are scanning the documents quickly, trying to prioritize issues the group has to address. The time is running, members of the groups seem to be far from reaching a consensus, and a stream of new issues is still flowing. Suddenly, a collective sigh of relief may be heard – the water department voted for a policy unanimously. The head of the department leaves to pass their proposal to the council. Just in time! Almost simultaneously, a moderator rings a bell and asks the buzzing crowd for attention.

Why do we need the nexus approach

A range of socio-ecological processes, such as population growth, economic development and urbanization have contributed to an overall change in the way land and natural resources are exploited, processed and consumed. Growing demand and unsustainable management have increased man’s ecological footprint and caused modification or degradation of the natural resource base in many areas of the world. The situation is further exacerbated by pollution and human-driven climate change, which results in uncertainty and less reliable food and water supplies due to e.g. intense extreme events (such as droughts or floods). Such pressures may in long-term drive social-ecological systems across critical thresholds, leading to irreversible water, energy and food crises. To avoid this situation and align with the Sustainable Development Goals, we need a shift towards improved resource efficiency, demand management and more sustainable consumption patterns. 

The nexus approach can guide a transition to sustainability, by reducing negative impacts within the system and producing gains that outweigh the costs connected with investing in better policy and “greener” technology. Based on a better understanding of the interdependence of water, energy and food, this integrated approach identifies multilateral beneficial solutions to resource management (e.g. water and waste recycling, investing in green infrastructure or renewable sources of energy) and provide way to  meet the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.

Like most “serious” games, does not rely on rivalry or single goal completion but presents the array of challenges and opposing interests that the players have to face to determine their own priorities.

Nexus Game

Like most “serious” games, does not rely on rivalry or single goal completion but presents the array of challenges and opposing interests that the players have to face to determine their own priorities.

Messy business

While the benefits of a nexus approach for individuals and societies are unquestionable, little is known how to advance this approach, especially in a multi-stakeholder environments. Global challenges that involve many diversified groups of stakeholders taking decisions under uncertainty, require collaboration on many different levels. The complex nature of socio-ecological system is characterized by messiness, with many processes happening at the same time. Without a proper understanding of the variables, policymakers may solve one problem but unintentionally generate another one, as illustrated, e.g. by the misconceptions connected with the renewable sources of energy. Many people may think that because the renewables cannot generally be over-exploited or depleted, they do not involve any negative impacts. Meanwhile, overdependence on them may highly interfere with other nexus sectors. For example biofuels, and to some extent hydropower, demand more water per unit of energy produced compared to fossil fuels. They also involve a risk of negative energy gains. For instance, corn grown in the US for energy purposes may require more calories of input than it eventually produces. As a consequence, unless integrated in multi-use systems, biofuels may actually compete with food production for water, potentially decreasing the resilience of food production systems.

Many attempts to identify an optimal path towards sustainability fail due to over-reliance on hard data and inadequate appreciation of the diversity of ways decisions are made. People often erroneously assume that their choices stem from rationality. Meanwhile, we are never equipped with perfect information on the situation and are prone to show bias, rely on misconceptions and our individual understanding of the issue, and favor short-term gains rather than longstanding solutions. Add to it differences in human values or interest and uncertainty that underlies our future, and the complexity of collaborative decision-making becomes evident. There is myriad of perspectives the sustainability transformation may be approached and no one “optimal” answer to it exists. This raises the question: How to advance a socially accepted solution? The solution that is agreed upon by the majority of stakeholders and offers possibilities to address all the nexus sectors and their complex interactions?

The Nexus Game offers a possibility to explore the dynamics of transboundary resource management. The game setting contains two countries sharing a river basin and thus facing interlinked challenges of water, energy and food production and consumption. By assuming the roles of the prime ministers, water ministers, energy ministers or agriculture ministers, the players enter into inter-government and international negotiations in order to meet the growing people’s demands and at the same time achieve sustainable development in both countries.

Social simulation to explore the nexus approach

There are many ways the complexity of water-energy-food nexus may be explored, however the best option is always to actively engage the stakeholders. Activities that enable people to collaboratively explore alternative scenarios offer space for creativity required to discover brand new paths, and enable the participants to understand competing interests and worldviews, which is a starting point for negotiating a consensus. In this context social simulations are gaining recognition, as a tool for triggering involvement and increasing public awareness on many serious issues. Simulating the reality of socio-ecological dilemmas, they help “players” immerse in their roles and gradually discover the complex landscape of problems, responsibilities and opportunities. 

The Nexus Game is a good example, as it offers a possibility to explore the dynamics of transboundary resource management. The game setting contains two countries sharing a river basin and thus facing interlinked challenges of water, energy and food production and consumption. By assuming the roles of the prime ministers, water ministers, energy ministers or agriculture ministers, the players enter into inter-government and international negotiations in order to meet the growing people’s demands and at the same time achieve sustainable development in both countries. Their task is not easy, taking into consideration the interlinked pressures, such as the unpredictable rainfall (resulting in floods or droughts) and the shrinking natural and monetary resources. The decisions they make receive almost immediate feedback, as e.g. erroneous distribution of water tokens negatively affects power generation or agriculture production. Consequently, throughout the game, the participants may discover a number of dependencies existing across and within water, energy and food systems and learn that sustainable resource management requires forward looking and making difficult choices between meeting current needs and investing in developments technologies that may positively affect their countries’ production and consumption trends. 

As noticed by Mochizuki et al. (2018), one of the significant characteristics of the game is that the players observe not only the benefits but also trade-offs connected with reducing resource use and transition to low-emission options. For example, an improved coal power plant burns coal at a higher temperature, reducing coal input and GHG emissions but increasing water footprint. A micro-hydroelectric plant, on the other hand, although cleaner, depends highly on water availability and may be ineffective in times of drought. By highlighting these inevitable “costs” that have to be born, the players are able not only to gain a more holistic perception of the system, but also understand the dilemmas of policy-making under uncertainty.

The Nexus Game, like most “serious” games, does not rely on rivalry or single goal completion but presents the array of challenges and opposing interests that the players have to face to determine their own priorities. While exploring the simulated world, the participants soon become aware of the need to communicate and collaborate.The two countries are highly dependant on the river their share, therefore individual and common interests blurry, creating a space for negotiations and compromises. All ministers are given partial authority and may focus solely on their sectors. However, if they don’t decide to cooperate within and and across the boundaries of their country, serious problems emerge in all nexus sectors. “I have learned that energy, agriculture, water ministers must collaborate with each other to better decision making. They are interdependent systems,” as one of the players summarized the experience.

The simulation, developed in collaboration with the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) in cooperation with the Sustainable Energy for All initiative, has been played, i.a., with the participants of the Dresden Nexus Conference, the employees of the African Development Bank in Abidjan (Ivory Coast) and water and energy professionals in Johannesburg (South Africa) and Cairo (Egypt). Many valuable insights and reflections emerged during these sessions, as most of the players agreed that the Nexus Game offers a playful, participatory and hands-on experience, which allowed them to learn from each other, view their opinions and gain a better understanding of the nexus approach to resource management. One of the participants of the Egyptian session admitted, for example, that the immersion in the simulated world helped him “see the big picture and evaluate situations objectively not subjectively, from a different perspective that usual”. Greater empathy, perspective-taking as well as the ability to perceive global challenges not as individual obstacles but as part of the bigger system, are among most appreciated lessons drawn by the Nexus players. Another Egyptian participant stated, for example, that via exploring the game’s world, he “learned how water is the propeller of development in every field, like food production, energy, and how it affects the pollution.” All these comments confirm our belief that social simulations are powerful tools to be explored while developing long-term strategies and policies, and may definitely support sustainable practices that will ultimately lead to a more fair, stable, inclusive and satisfied societies living  in harmony with Nature.

References

Hoff, Holger. 2011. Understanding the NEXUS. Background Paper for the Bonn2011 Conference: The Water, Energy and Food Security Nexus. Stockholm: Stockholm Environment Institute.;

Mochizuki J., Magnuszewski P., Linnerooth-Bayer J. (2018) Games for Aiding Stakeholder Deliberation on Nexus Policy Issues. In: Hülsmann S., Ardakanian R. (eds) Managing Water, Soil and Waste Resources to Achieve Sustainable Development Goals. Springer, Cham

Alpbach_forum

, ,

Aleksandra Solińska-Nowak

Aleksandra Solińska-Nowak

15 min read

04.05.2018

THE ALPBACH STORY: CENTRE FOR SYSTEMS SOLUTIONS’ SIMULATIONS IN THE VILLAGE OF THINKERS

TOWARDS THE UNITED EUROPE

In 1945 the Second World War was coming to an end. By this time European thinkers, politicians and scientists were seeking for efficient ways to ensure a complete reconstruction of intellectual life in Europe and to prevent future massive conflicts among European nations. In August 1945 the “Internationale Hochschulwochen” (The International Summer Seminars) were established by Otto Molden, who had been active in the resistance movement during the Second World War, and a philosophy lecturer, Simon Moser. The initiative was created as “an intellectual platform of discussion where Europe’s cultural, scientific and humanitarian heritage could be developed in a future-oriented way and where European integration could be promoted.”

THE VILLAGE OF THINKERS

The endeavor (renamed to “European Forum Alpbach” in 1949) soon gained considerable recognition among the intellectuals interested in political unification in Europe. Over 70 years later, the Tyrolean mountain village of Alpbach remains the “other magic mountain”, gathering 5000 participants from over 100 countries every year. For three weeks they participate in seminars, symposia and debates and discuss current issues, exchange knowledge and formulate interdisciplinary solutions. “The open character of the events promotes a climate of tolerance for different opinions and contributes to overcoming national, ideological and disciplinary boundaries in a peaceful manner.”

ALWAYS UP-TO DATE

Each year the programme of the European Forum Alpbach is focused around a selected European challenge, aiming to trigger reflection and more coherent action towards an economically, politically and socially stable future. The rich schedule embraces seminars and symposia and is addressed to international and interdisciplinary decision makers from science, health, higher education, law, technology, politics, economy, built environment, financial markets, culture, art, and civil society, as well as to students and university graduates, who can participate in the Alpbach Summer Schools.

CENTRE FOR SYSTEMS SOLUTIONS AT EUROPEAN FORUM ALPBACH

The organizers do not hesitate to invite speakers, lecturers and facilitators from all over the world, who – in the course of time – create a diversified yet bound by a common mission network of partners. Since 2014 the Centre for Systems Solutions (in cooperation with International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis) has its share in this process. From that time on, the multinational and multicultural participants of the European Forum Alpbach have been engaged in our social simulations, playing, i.a., Forest@Risk, Bengaluru Quest or The World’s Future through which they explored the difficult task of making decisions under certainty, managing common pool resources, addressing social and environmental problems and transforming towards sustainability. Combining the elements of scenario building, role-playing and game-like mechanisms, the social simulations at Alpbach offered a perfect complement to lively and fruitful plenary discussions or seminars.

The multinational and multicultural participants of the European Forum Alpbach have been engaged in our social simulations, like The World’s Future.
The multinational and multicultural participants of the European Forum Alpbach have been engaged in our social simulations, like The World’s Future.

In 2017, Piotr Magnuszewski had also a unique opportunity to co-create a beautiful dance performance based on the game theory and led by Gloria Benedikt from IIASA. As part of the the closing plenary session “Transformative pathways to sustainability: from perception to changing behavior” of the Alpbach Political Symposium, InDilemmaperformance touched on inequalities, shrinking resources and living space, enabling audience to actively affect the moves of the dancers. “By creating a narrative around an abstract theory, using music, dance, and visuals with narrated text,…[InDilemma provided] insights into the power of fusing artistic and scientific processes in order to strengthen this competence as well as into the potential of actively engaging audiences to understand and support the complex decision making involved in working to achieve sustainability.”