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urban_sustainability_social_simulation

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Aleksandra Solińska-Nowak

Aleksandra Solińska-Nowak

20 min read

25.02.2020

SUSTAIN

How to learn urban sustainability through a simulation

Advancing urbanization

There is probably no worse a place in the entire world for the environment than a city. With a growing number of inhabitants, vehicles, houses, factories and products, “[c]ities are by far the largest creations of humanity. Designing, building, and operating them has the greatest destructive impact on the nature of any human activity” (Register 2006). This is true. According to the United Nations, cities occupy only 3 percent of the planet’s land but account for about 70 percent of global energy consumption, carbon emissions, and resource use (UN-HABITAT 2018). This situation will only get worse in the future, as 68% of the world population is projected to live in urban areas by 2050 (Ritchie and Roser 2020).

Sustainable development is all about fairness and inclusiveness. It is “[the] development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.” (Our Common Future 1987). Unfortunately, cities are growing bigger every year, requiring more land, energy and more consumables to be produced. While the rich and educated may easily benefit from this transformation, the unprivileged will inevitably be left behind. All over the world, cities are home to socioeconomic inequalities, social exclusion, poverty and unemployment, slums and inadequate housing.

Urban sustainability

To address these socio-economic gaps and account for a number of inevitable trade-offs, the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development (UN 2019) has incorporated urbanization in the broader framework of sustainability, formulating the goal on cities (Goal 11), known as the urban SDG, to “make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable through eliminating slumlike conditions, providing accessible and affordable transport systems, reducing urban sprawl, increasing participation in urban governance, enhancing cultural and heritage preservation, addressing urban resilience and climate change challenges, better management of urban environments (pollution and waste management), providing access to safe and secure public spaces for all, and improving urban management through better urban policies and regulations” (UN-HABITAT 2018).

The formulation of the urban SGD constitutes a significant advancement in our efforts to account for a fair, sustainable and inclusive world. At the same time, many challenges exist in promoting and implementing the Agenda 2030 and in making people – especially the youth – realizing their responsibility and role in shaping our common future.

SUSTAIN – Game-Based Learning on Urban Sustainability

SUSTAIN – Game-Based Learning on Urban Sustainability

Sustainability learning

To enhance participation and joint action towards increased sustainability, we need engaging and easily replicable awareness-raising activities. In this respect, the United Nations (UNESCO 2005) determined key features of effective sustainability learning. According to them, sustainability education should be:

  1.  interdisciplinary and holistic – rooted in and connected to other aspects of human life and experience;
  2. values-driven – capable of assimilating and applying the shared values and principles underpinning sustainable development;
  3. based on critical thinking and problem solving – making use of the participants’ cognitive capabilities in addressing the dilemmas and challenges of sustainable development;
  4. multi-method – combining different active methodologies (such as art, drama, debate, experience) rather than relying on presenting “dry” facts;
  5. participatory – enabling students to partake in decisions on how they learn;
  6. applicable – easily integrated into students’ personal and “professional” life;
  7. locally relevant – addressing local as well as global issues that are relevant to the learners.

Serious games and simulations for urban sustainability

Serious games and simulations are gaining recognition as a promising way of addressing these features while engaging wide audiences in discussions on sustainability in urban contexts. Based on collaborative problem-solving and decision-making processes, serious games and simulations enable players to explore sustainability principles, face emerging challenges, test and verify potential solutions, and transfer this knowledge into specific, local or regional contexts. In this way, collective and adaptive response to complex dynamics can be exercised in a stimulating, “playful” environment.

SUSTAIN: game-based learning on urban sustainability

Basing their methodology on game-based approach and participatory tools, a team of game designers, university teachers, researchers, and activists launched the SUSTAIN project. The initiative, which lasted from 2017 to 2019, promoted sustainable literacy among students through an innovative and learner-centered education. To achieve this objective, the consortium designed, developed and implemented a course consisting of a serious board game and a set of additional materials that enable young people explore the challenges and opportunities of urban sustainability. 

Why did the project consortium choose a game for their medium? Michalina Kułakowska, a member of the SUSTAIN consortium explains that: 

We wanted to be sure that young people – our future political leaders and innovators – will get fully engaged in what we want to transmit. Learning through games and simulations differs significantly from traditional knowledge acquisition, like that based on textbooks and lectures. Just listening and noting information may be boring and counter-effective. In games and simulations, you have to act – ask questions, define challenges, move tokens, bear the consequences of your decisions and talk a lot with other players. Consequently, your brain is constantly shifting from a thinking mode through seeing and doing to touching modes. No one can be a passive observer here!

Fun, engagement and serious reflections

That is true. In the SUSTAIN game, each player becomes a high ranking official of one of the city’s departments: Infrastructure, Environment & Sustainability, Transportation, Welfare, Law & Public Services, Culture, Sport & Education. The main task for each department is to address specific problems and their related effects on the city. But the task does not end here. Most of the problems overlap (e.g. pollution, citizens’ standard of living) and the interests of every department may vary. Hence players are inevitably dragged into conflicts between themselves and between their distinct perceptions of “common good.” For this reason, they cannot work in silos, but have to learn how to find a common language and act together to minimize trade-offs and maximize synergies in and across sectors that they represent. 

A further difficulty stems from possible side effects of players’ decisions. Each investment, be it new infrastructure (e.g. new bicycle paths or business facilities) or policy (i.e. subsidies, campaigns), may bring about not only positive but also undesired negative effects. While some of them can be easily anticipated (e.g. social riots after the taxes were increased), others (e.g. natural disasters) may come unexpectedly, disrupting the hard-earned socio-economic order in the city. 

In a highly dynamic environment of the simulation, the city’s status can change from minute to minute, and each delay in the decision process may lead to serious consequences. Although many scenario elements have been planned in advance to let players experience potential threats and give the rhythm to the whole narration, the final outcome always depends on the participants.

Virtual look into the future

The SUSTAIN game is thus a perfect tool for helping participants directly experience the responsibility for their choices. By experimenting with different solutions and instantly facing their consequences in a fail-safe environment of simulation, students may easily realize how their short-sightedness or hasty decisions may affect the future. This “virtual look into the future” is especially important in the context of urban sustainability, as many solutions aimed at improving the quality of life in urban areas (e.g. introduction of renewable sources of energy) entail considerable uncertainty as to whether the time, work and money invested will generate the desired outcomes.

The SUSTAIN game was already testes during the pilot course at the University of Macedonia in Thessaloniki, Greece. The test runs have shown that students are inclined to take a different approach when making decisions after playing the game. After experiencing how the urban system works, they better understand that, without a more cooperative approach, there is no hope for big steps towards urban sustainability. One participant pointed out that it was shocking to him how difficult it was to manage the city and achieve his own goals with many external pressures. Participants were brought to the realization that citizens are often the ones demanding visible short-term solutions to complex problems.  There is a certain level of trust between public administration, experts and citizens necessary to implement long-term plans, and through them, make a change towards a more sustainable future. 

The game together with the course materials  will soon be available from the project’s website.

Further reading:

World Commission on Environment and Development (1987). Our Common Future. Oxford: Oxford University Press. p. 27. ISBN 019282080X.

Register, R. (2006). EcoCities: Rebuilding Cities in Balance with Nature. New Society Publishers

Ritchie, H. and Roser, M. (2020).  “Urbanization”. Published online at OurWorldInData.org. Retrieved from: https://ourworldindata.org/urbanization [Online Resource]

SUSTAIN – Game-based learning on urban sustainability (2017). Retrieved from: http://sustainerasmus.eu/wp/ [Online Resource]

UN (2019). Sustainable Development Goals Knowledge Platform. Retrieved from:  https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/ [Online Resource]

UNESCO (2005). United Nations Decade of Education for Sustainable Development 2005-2014. Draft Implementation Scheme. UNESCO

UN-HABITAT (2018). SDG 11 Synthesis Report 2018. Tracking Progress towards Inclusive, Safe, Resilient and Sustainable Cities and Human Settlements. High Level Political Forum 10.11648.j.urp.20180301.15.pdf

disaster-risk-management

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Aleksandra Solińska-Nowak

Aleksandra Solińska-Nowak

20 min read

31.01.2020

Unnatural disasters

How to communicate risks better?

Hazards may be natural, disasters are not

A hazard is „a process, phenomenon or human activity that may cause loss of life, injury or other health impacts, property damage, social and economic disruption or environmental degradation.” (UNISDR, 2016).

When it comes to origins, hazards may be natural, anthropogenic or socio-natural. Natural hazards are foremost connected to natural processes, be it geological and meteorological, such as earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, wildfires, cyclones, floods, droughts, avalanches  and landslides or biological (disease, infection, infestation and invasive species) (Burton et al., 1993).

Not every natural hazard must, however, cause what is often referred to as „natural disaster.” In fact, most scientists and disaster experts agree that „there’s nothing \”natural\”—which is to say, nothing inevitable—about a disaster. (Pierre-Louis, 2017):

\”Most of what we call natural disasters (tornadoes, droughts, hurricanes) are indeed natural, though human contributions may increase their likelihood or intensity. But they aren\’t disasters—they\’re hazards. If a hurricane slams into land where no one lives, it isn\’t a disaster; it\’s weather. A disaster is when a natural hazard meets a human population. And often, that intersection is far from natural.” (Pierre-Louis, 2017).

In other words, what makes (natural) hazards become (unnatural) disasters depends primarily on the way people interact with, prepare for and respond to hazards. Potential disastrous impacts may be avoided, lessened or worsened depending on our choices. In many cases, hazards are either predictable or have even been predicted prior to their emergence. 

The need for a more integrated, holistic approach both to the resource management and to the global policy in general became even more undisputable with the adaptation of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in 2015. To simultaneously address the 17 major priorities, ranging from poverty and hunger alleviation, gender equality, industry development to sustainable production and environment protection, we are all required to recognize the interrelatedness and interdependence of these, partially overlapping or competing, goals, and to grasp the complex net of interactions, trade-offs and synergies that they create. Advancing towards a more stable and sustainable future depends thus on the “nexus thinking” or “systems thinking” that, instead of just looking at individual components and short-term quantitative outcomes, recognizes feedbacks and connections, and promotes concerted action and cooperation on a global scale across sectors, time and space. 

From time to time a woman in black approaches each department, passing them a thick pile of documents. Upon her arrival, the group discussions become even more stormy. It means that a new problem or request has been submitted by the society. Departments’ heads are scanning the documents quickly, trying to prioritize issues the group has to address. The time is running, members of the groups seem to be far from reaching a consensus, and a stream of new issues is still flowing. Suddenly, a collective sigh of relief may be heard – the water department voted for a policy unanimously. The head of the department leaves to pass their proposal to the council. Just in time! Almost simultaneously, a moderator rings a bell and asks the buzzing crowd for attention.

It is easy to be wise after the event

Let’s take the example of Katrina, one of the most disastrous hurricanes that hit the USA and caused the flooding of 80% of New Orleans in 2005. In fact, experts on hurricanes and on New Orleans had known the impact of Katrina on the city even before it emerged. Many earlier storms had similar effects on the location. In addition, computer models were built by the Louisiana State University Hurricane Center and „predicted that a storm of Katrina\’s strength would produce ‘back door’ flooding from Lake Pontchartrain and the canals. (Hays, 2005). \”Anybody, going back 10 or 15 years, could see this was a disaster just waiting to happen\” (Sohn, 2005). So, if the hazard had been known, how come it  was „allowed” to develop into a disaster?

Martin Ras (2005) has the answer: Disaster exposure is highly dependent on the way we develop, build and construct our towns and cities. In cases of New Orleans, it was literally \”wrested from nature\” (Hays, 2005). Built in the Mississippi River delta where the river dumps into the Gulf of Mexico, for hundreds of years, the city was regularly haunted by floods. The surrounding marshes and islands were, however, able to absorb the impact of storm surges from hurricanes that systematically occurred in the area in summertime. Unfortunately, in the 1980s, the river banks were strengthen with concrete and levees were built (Sohn, 2005). Since then, New Orleans has not had regular flooding. Silt no longer builds up and the ground under the city has been sinking. \”Now, when hurricanes come, the natural shock absorber of the delta is gone, increasing the impact of storm surges.\” (Sohn, 2005)

flood

Underestimating the risk

Hurricane Katrina is just one of the many examples of how erroneous construction decisions, risk-blind land use or short-term economic interests may lead to the increased vulnerability and exposure to hazards. It\’s not that we do not have the engineering and technological capacities to mitigate disaster impacts. All the time engineers and scientists design disaster smart solutions. In fact, scientific and technological advances have made it possible to anticipate disaster risks, enabling governments, civil society organizations, NGOs and communities to prepare for these eventualities and take early action (Solinska-Nowak et al., 2018). 

So why don\’t we make use of this information? Why, despite warnings, people continue to locate their homes and assets in exposed areas? Why do they ignore building constraints or invest in wrong solutions? The answer seems worryingly simple:  Many people still live in risky areas or take irresponsible decisions because the risks weren’t made clear to them, or because they underestimate them.

Need for a new approach to risk communication

How to change this? One of the solutions may be a new approach to risk communication. For many years, traditional approach to risk communication and disaster management has been focused on top-down, centralized processes in which \”the decision-making and strategy development is the forte of governments, researchers and disaster managers\” (Solinska-Nowak et al., 2018). In such approach, little attention is given to translating scientific information and expert knowledge to more comprehensible language. As a result, regular people cannot easily make sense of what is communicated to them and remain blissfully unaware of what precautions they may take.

For this reason, there have been increasing calls in the last decade to move away from top-down, structural and purely scientific approaches to more participatory and community-based DRM strategies (Solinska-Nowak et al, 2018). The main advantage of such approaches is the fact that “…the end users of information [are treated] not merely as a target audience but as partners in co-learning through processes and products that reflect their own contributions” (Roncoli, 2006).  

Can games and simulations help?

Following this shift in approach to risk communication, decision-making and practice, there is increased recognition that serious games and simulations may serve as a promising participatory tool, and support understanding of essential issues, such as sustainable development, climate-change mitigation and disaster resilience. Authors of an interesting article \”An overview of serious games for disaster risk management – Prospects and limitations for informing actions to arrest increasing risk\” decided thus to check the potential of such activities for raising disaster-awareness. If you want to learn how (and if) games and simulations can help people become less vulnerable do natural hazards, you should definitely read it! It is enough to follow this link.

References

Burton, I.; Kates, R.W.; White, G.F. (1993). The environment as hazard. Guilford Press. ISBN 9780898621594.

Hayes, B. (2005) Natural and Unnatural Disasters. American Scientist. November-December 2005. Volume 93, Number 6, p. 496, DOI: 10.1511/2005.56.496

Martin Ras (2017) Natural disasters don’t exist but natural hazards do. United Nations Development Programme

Sohn, E. (2005) Unnatural natural disasters. Science News for students.

Solinska-Nowak A., Magnuszewski, A., Curl, M., French, A., Keating, A., Mochizuki, J., Liu, W., Melcher, R., Kulakowska, M., Jarzabek, J. (2018), An overview of serious games for disaster risk management – Prospects and limitations for informing actions to arrest increasing risk. In: International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction., 31(6), 1013-1029. 

effectivness-of-games

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Michał Pająk

Michał Pająk

25 min read

02.01.2020

Effectiveness of social simulations and serious games.

Although the majority of our daily activities at the Centre for Systems Solutions is connected with developing serious games and social simulations, we do not consider them as the main goal of our organization. Such activities are solely the means, not the end we are trying to achieve. We believe that using social simulations enables participants to get a real first-hand experience of tackling difficult problems. This creates a new understanding of interdependencies, relations, and complexity behind systems that they are part of in real life. But is it really the case? Does using social simulations actually matter and may lead to tangible changes in participants\’ lives or in their everyday work? To check if our tools positively affect participants and their understanding of complex reality, we regularly conduct an evaluation of the participants’ results. Addressing users’ comments and suggestions helps us improve our social simulations and learn more about their effectiveness as educational or awareness-raising tools. So far, the Centre for Systems Solutions conducted two major evaluations on large groups of participants. 

 

The first one constituted the part of the project \’Green games. Libraries and non-governmental organizations involve youth in the game for nature\’. The objective of the project was to increase the level of knowledge among young people about biodiversity, climate change, and the economic value of ecosystems. To reach the aim, we invited librarians and workers of non-governmental organizations in Poland and equipped them with tools (climate change-related board and online games) and know-how to prepare for and lead a game-based workshop with youth. Further, to check if playing the games enabled youth to gain a better understanding of environmental issues and inspired them to learn more about such topics, we asked them to answer pre- and post-game questionnaires. 

 

We were able to get 3372 responses from young people between the ages of 15 and 19. We found out that after playing the game, 84% of the participants reported an increase in general knowledge about environmental issues. Out of this, 46.1% responders considered this increase as substantial. Similar results were obtained in reference to the questions about biodiversity and climate change-related knowledge acquisition. In the case of biodiversity awareness, 84.8% participants reported some knowledge increase, out of which 50.5% assessed it as substantial. In the case of climate change awareness, the corresponding values were 78.8% and 43%.

Self-reported-increase-in-knowledge

Furthermore, we asked participants how they evaluated their increase in knowledge, understanding, and interest in environmental issues. Only 11.17% of the respondents felt that the workshop gave them no new insights or sparked no interest in these topics. This means that 88.83% of participants learned something new or got inspired to learn more about environmental issues after playing the game.

Self-reported-increase-in-uderstanding-and-interest-about-environmental-issues

Finally, we compared the number of participants who responded that they had had no previous interest in environmental issues and felt that this topic is not worth any attention to the number of respondents that held the same opinion after playing the game. It turned out that out of 226 people with the highly negative attitude toward this topic, 38 were inspired to find out more information about this field after playing the game.

Change-in-interest

The second evaluation was connected with the project \’New Earth – Catholic Church educators increase the climate sensibility among students and believers.\’ The project’s objective was to embed climate change-related issues in a durable and accessible tool that would be used by Catholic educators. We developed thus Laudato Si – a pro-ecological board game inspired by the second encyclical of Pope Francis, and a set of additional educational materials. Further, we compared questionnaire responses of school students that took part in Laudato Si-based lessons (1398 participants) against the replies obtained from the control group (806 students).

 

We found out that in the control group (who had no contact with the game and educational materials), only 62% of respondents believed that human activity affects climate change. 37% of interviewees were skeptical of this connection, had no opinion or denied climate change in general. Meanwhile, in the group exposed to the game, 77% responders were convinced that climate change is real and that it is affected by people.

Opinions-about-climate-change-and-its-origins

What is more, participants who had the opportunity to play Laudato Si as a part of the lesson, felt that climate change is a much more serious matter than the students from the control group.

Perceived-seriousness-of-climate-change

An important aspect of the research was to find out whether young people feel that their own actions can have an impact on the environment and climate change. According to their responses, 64% of the Laudato Si players believed that their actions matter, with only 34% doubting that an individual can do anything to control the negative environmental impacts. Meanwhile, in the control group, only 54% of the people believed that they have influence, and 37% were convinced that they, on their own, cannot do anything.

Opinion-about-one's-influence-on-climate-change

These results show that social simulations do have an influence on participants. We can clearly see that they affect the knowledge of participants and their understanding of environmental issues. This makes us optimistic about the positive consequences of using social simulations and gives us the motivation to improve our products to be more effective and impactful. Still, we understand that further research is needed to assess the long-term effects of changes that we observed in participants\’ responses. This would require involving a large number of participants and more elaborate means of measuring the effects of social simulations. We believe that the results of such research would enable us to make our workshops even more effective. As was mentioned at the beginning, we continuously put our effort to create better tools to reach our goal. 

energy-transition-game

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Michał Pająk

Michał Pająk

10 min read

12.09.2019

The future starts now 

experiencing scenarios for energy transition through a social simulation

In many countries worldwide, the topic of energy transition seems to be highly charged. The array of challenges connected to this process embraces a clash of worldviews, controversies over the efficiency of existing technologies, legitimacy and quality of planned and implemented policies, disputes over the \”right\” energy mix as well as other complex economic and social issues. Yet, the transition will inevitably have to be introduced soon, and both the process and the time framework of the change are the key to success. To add to this heated discussion and to suggest a way forward, the Centre for Systems Solutions, in collaboration with Wuppertal Institute and Thema1, has developed the Energy Transition Game.

The reality of simulation

The activity can be described as a social simulation—a type of face-to-face serious game for a large group of people that engages them in mock negotiation, confrontation and decision-making. In this particular case, participants step into the shoes of ministries, energy producers, technology startups, energy providers, and NGOs. Thrust into the harsh reality of the energy transformation, they don’t only have to deal with the associated technical complexity but also learn to manage complicated relations between each other\’s conflicting ideas and agendas. 

What they discover, wading through a seemingly endless list of emergencies to address, is that transformation is not a lonely business and, to lead it successfully, they have to step out of their silos and start working together. This revelation does not come instantly, of course. At the beginning many players are motivated mostly by personal gains. For example, in the initial rounds, energy producers often show no interest in the natural environment protection, investing in facilities that can ensure them stable profits rather than relying on uncertain sun- or wind-dependant energy sources. Such an attitude usually meets with severe public censure. NGOs’ representatives call for financial sanctions against such practices and demand more sustainable solutions being introduced. However, green technologies proposed by technology start-ups are often counter-effective, as they still depend on outdated infrastructure. This, in turn, has to be addressed by the government that – as you may suspect – doesn’t have enough budget to modernize it. So what is their strategy? Raising energy prices! And this is how the vicious circle continues.

Looking for solutions

With its lively dynamics, The Energy Transition Game gives room for collective problem solving and testing available options with their associated impacts on economy, ecology or society. The in-game world’s mechanisms mirror the most important features of our real world, making it easier for players to draw meaningful conclusions that may be furthered applied to solve real, not only simulated, challenges. For example, when played by policy-makers, it may help them anticipate potential trade-offs and delineate possible mitigation measures. How? By simply experiencing them, either through the games’ mechanics or through other participants’ feedback. Unlike in real life, however, such testing is safe and not linked to any fatal repercussions. It may thus serve to chart a desired course of action and prepare for plausible stumbling blocks. For this purpose, the Energy Transition Game has been successfully used at  multiple workshops organized, among others, with Estonian Ministry of Environment, German Environment Ministry, Wuppertal Institute, Climate-KIC, Systems Innovation Lab.

Green technologies proposed by technology start-ups are often counter-effective, as they still depend on outdated infrastructur. On the picture: a card representing prosumer solar energy production.
Green technologies proposed by technology start-ups are often counter-effective, as they still depend on outdated infrastructur. On the picture: a card representing prosumer solar energy production.

Real experience from simulated realities

Although the simulation was designed to depict the problem of energy transition, it can also be used in other contexts. For example to address technical and social aspects of complex processes, such as multilateral agreements or coordination of joint initiatives where stakeholders of different backgrounds and values meet, etc. The Energy Transition Game encourages \’out-of-the-box\’ thinking, negotiation and mediation skills. By and large, it is a great tool to display problems and dilemmas emerging from complex, coupled systems that encompass environmental, social, economic and technical elements and interactions between them.

energy-transition

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Amanda Anthony

Amanda Anthony

20 min read

08.04.2019

What Macron Would Do Differently If He Could Go Back In Time

It’s May 2017. We see an elated Emmanuel Macron, celebrating his presidential victory, his platform focused on making the government more efficient and including green initiatives aimed at helping France reduce its dependency on nuclear and fossil fuels. In his acceptance speech, he says he understands the “rage, anxiety and doubt” simmering in the country and that he plans to use his five years healing the divisions.

It’s November 2018. Thousands of people line the streets in Paris and beyond wearing “yellow vests”, protesting the proposed rise in the diesel fuel tax. They claim that his policies make it hard to live in France. They claim he is out of touch with the struggles of workers.

Even though many protestors support energy transition, the simple framing and brute implementation of the tax on diesel simply did not take into account all the tradeoffs that come with moving to renewable energy, nor did it examine the emotional effects of yet another policy being imposed upon an already burdened populace.

Thousands of people line the streets in Paris and beyond wearing “yellow vests”, protesting the proposed rise in the diesel fuel tax. Video by: Wall Street Journal.

Wishing for a do-over

Macron must be wishing he could go back in time and do it over. It is, of course, too late for that – he is currently relegated to crisis management and image rebuilding. However, the idea of “looking into the future” is something he should consider before taking up the issue of carbon taxes and other climate change policies again. 

This isn’t some kind of “Minority Report” fantasy: It is a fruitful time for immersive, forward-looking approaches to problem-solving. From Henry Mintzberg’s work on “seeing first” and “doing first” in strategy development, to Stuart Darcy’s experiential futures and Richard Duke and Jac Guert’s policy exercises, we now have less linear and more active ways of exploring the future before it comes. Among these strategies is the use of social simulation, aka policy or serious games.

Each well-intentioned idea has a number of different possible outcomes based on both the decisions made and the decision makers. On the photo: media news representing outcomes of various decisions made by players during the Energy Transition Game workshop.

Energy Transition Game

Each well-intentioned idea has a number of different possible outcomes based on both the decisions made and the decision makers. On the photo: media news representing outcomes of various decisions made by players during the Energy Transition Game workshop.

Using social simulation to see the future

Social simulation helps players bring their ideas of the future to life. As they adopt roles and implement their solutions, they begin to “see” how creativity is necessary for addressing so-called “wicked problems.” They feel ownership of their decisions and the results in a way that the more linear thought exercises of traditional scenario planning do not enable. 

Players who have used Energy Transition Game, our social simulation on the transition to low-emission energy sources, often come in with a determination – like Macron – to take action. For many, it’s a very logical process: implement the tax, reduce carbon emissions, success! 

What they often do not realize is that each well-intentioned idea has a number of different possible outcomes based on both the decisions made and the decision makers. Making consumers bear the real cost of energy production, including pollution mitigation, may work as planned. Alternatively, the policy may be implemented too quickly and clumsily, and be followed by protests, opposition and a significant decline in public support. There may be even 100 other possible results, based on who is at the table, whose views are considered, when and how fast decisions are made and many other factors. 

That is why the critical moment for using simulation or other types of experiential scenarios is well before policy implementation, as Margaret Thatcher learned with her “Working for Patients” idea.

Social simulation in practice

In the famous  “Rubber Windmill” simulation, the would-be policy administrators challenged themselves to come up with and “implement” a number of possible future scenarios to reform Britain’s National Health Service. By role-playing several potential situations, they hoped to identify traps, blind spots and other challenges and prepare accordingly. What the simulation showed was that the reforms as initially proposed were unfeasible, sending its proponents back to the drawing board. 

Where else could simulation have been useful? For starters: Managing the Flint, Michigan, water crisis, Brexit, or the 2015 European refugee crisis. If policymakers had stepped back from politicking and invested the time in exploring the future through simulation, they may have been able to take better decisions.

The social simulation would help policymakers and others with a stake in SDG implementation travel 40-50 years ahead in time and see the interplay of their decisions on the whole ecosystem – not just the effects within their borders. On the picture: mobile version of The World’s Future game.

The World\'s Future

The social simulation would help policymakers and others with a stake in SDG implementation travel 40-50 years ahead in time and see the interplay of their decisions on the whole ecosystem – not just the effects within their borders. On the picture: mobile version of The World’s Future game.

Time-traveling to The World’s Future

Going forward, other leaders should put their ideas and assumptions about the potential crises of tomorrow into practice using immersive exercises. A particularly good example of this concerns the Sustainable Development Goals, which are built on a complex system with many interconnections. Using The World’s Future would help policymakers and others with a stake in SDG implementation travel 40-50 years ahead in time and see the interplay of their decisions on the whole ecosystem – not just the effects within their borders. 

As momentum gathers around ideas like the Green New Deal and debate continues on migration policy, discussions are taking place about how the as-yet-undefined specifics of goals, strategy, and implementation should look. If we are serious about achieving sustainability and if advocates want their policies to stick, they must be able to find a level of consensus on goals, somehow reconciling diverse worldviews. Incorporating social simulation in their planning would enable them to “see” many possible outcomes and more confidently and creatively shape the future.

The-Word's_future

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Aleksandra Solińska-Nowak

Aleksandra Solińska-Nowak

Amanda Anthony

Amanda Anthony

20 min read

02.01.2019

The World’s Future is in our hands

How can we use the social simulation to address the biggest problem facing us today?

The world is running out of time and carbon budgets

When the International Panel on Climate Change released its report in October 2018 about necessary actions to limit or reverse the impact of our behavior on the environment, it also gave us a timeline to do so: 12 years. In 12 years, if we continue to produce carbon dioxide at the same pace we have been, we will have “spent” our entire carbon budget and the global average temperature will rise by 1.5-2۫°C. From a climate perspective, this is significant enough. In the context of the Sustainable Development Goals, though, a 1.5°C rise in temperature has far-reaching consequences.

Although 1.5°C may not sound like a lot, the speed at which the temperature has risen is the main cause for concern. The faster we spend our carbon budget, the less time we have to adapt to the new, hotter reality. It’s less time to save coastal cities from being flooded by rising ocean and sea waters, less time to adapt existing infrastructure for more frequent and severe weather, and less time to adapt our agriculture to grow in hotter, drier conditions. These direct impacts have peripheral impacts, too. More droughts and less adaptable crops mean more hunger and more poverty. Human displacement from flooded cities leads to more inequality and worse health and well-being. Rising temperatures affect life on land and life on water – wiping out fragile ecosystems and biodiversity. More poverty, more inequality, lower-quality life on land and underwater – without action, we will regress on achieving a number of Sustainable Development Goals.

Why are we inactive?

“If we don’t take action, the collapse of our civilisations is on the horizon.” said Sir David Attenborough at the UN climate change summit in Poland. This is only one of many public calls for action that has been repeatedly occurring in media over the last decades. And yet, since the Paris agreement in 2015 that obliged world leaders to keep the global temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, no major shifts have occurred in our production and consumption trends. Why? Does humanity consciously choose to follow a path to self-destruction?  

The answer to the question is not easy, as the battle over climate change is a battle between knowledge and practice, good will and money, science and politics. Singularly, they are a challenge; together, these challenges compound. Let\’s have a closer look at some examples.

Knowledge does not mean understanding

As early as the 1960s, the first computer models of the world’s climate supported the idea that the growth of greenhouse gases would contribute to warming. In 1988, James Hansen, the former NASA scientist, testified before Congress on anthropogenic climate change, raising public awareness of global warming, and advocating action to avoid its negative impacts.

We know the threats; we have possessed the necessary knowledge for at least 30 years, yet we somehow cannot render it into practice. What we do is present and address climate change and related impacts on the Sustainable Development Goal as something linear and gradual. It’s as if they were a box of chocolates from which we could pick one with no consequences. Let\’s address the world\’s atmosphere today! Or eradicate poverty!

Of course, real-world systems never work like that. They are more like a Jenga tower – each building block depends on another, together creating a highly complex and fragile structure. Moving one block only seems easy, and any false move can trigger a violent reaction that affects the whole tower.

Want a more real-life example? Think about the ocean. Covering around 70% of the Earth’s surface, it plays a crucial role in controlling the climate and the oxygen we breathe. Without a healthy ocean, we don\’t have a healthy planet. Yet, over the past hundred years, the average surface temperature of the seas has risen by about 0.9°C (1.6°F), damaging many fish habitats and causing fish species to move to cooler waters. As a result, warming oceans are affecting fish stocks in some areas, reducing catches and thus directly influencing people who rely on fishing as their main source of income or food. Ocean warming also impacts human health as pathogens spread more easily in warmer waters. This isn’t even mentioning its effects on the weather and the possibility of more severe and frequent extreme phenomena, such as hurricanes, increased rainfall or floods.

Change requires trade-offs

The ocean is only one of many life support systems that humanity depends on. There are other, no less complex ones, including soils, ice, the pattern of winds and currents, pollinators, and biological diversity. They are all interconnected, and if one fails, who knows what will happen to our Jenga tower? 

The Sustainable Development Goals offer a way to address these interlinked systems and balance social well-being, economic prosperity and environmental protection. Crucial to their pursuit is, however, our collective effort to achieve net-zero carbon emissions. No matter what politicians say, this won’t happen without necessary trade-offs, as some of the best solutions may have negative impacts on certain segments of society, based on where they live and how they make a living. Afforestation and bioenergy, for example, may compete with agriculture and food production. The example of the yellow jacket movement protests in France shows how policy aimed at lowering national dependence on fossil fuels may negatively affect the middle class and trigger social unrest on an unpredicted scale. 

The choices to be made are not easy, as the short-term gains have to be weighed against long-term, yet often uncertain and initially costly, change. Will politicians be able to make the trade-offs? Will the general public be able to accept them?

How to bridge this enormous gap between science and policy? How to help the general public, policymakers and businesses understand both the urgency and the complexity of the situation, and get on board with taking direct action? The World’s Future simulation has been created to address this challenge.

The World\'s Future

How to bridge this enormous gap between science and policy? How to help the general public, policymakers and businesses understand both the urgency and the complexity of the situation, and get on board with taking direct action? The World’s Future simulation has been created to address this challenge.

Predatory delay

Short-term gains are a particular problem, as it is common knowledge that in countries all over the world, politics and business are intertwined. Business influences what policies are made; policy influences the way business is done. Such dependencies may thwart rational decision-making as the short-term interests of business oligarchs often stand in opposition to the long-term well-being of society. This also explains why quitting coal is so difficult despite our possessing the knowledge and the technology to do so.


Black gold, although the most polluting of fossil fuels, is still the cheapest, is still underground and still offers an easy path to a lucrative business. Large companies, often subsidized by powerful governments are thus in a rush to expand their markets before coal is taken over by increasingly affordable renewables. Such an attitude, referred to as the “predatory delay” by the environmental writer Alex Steffen is reflected in the decisions of many world leaders. Donald Trump has announced to withdraw the USA – a country that is historically responsible for the most emissions in the world – from the Paris agreement. In Brazil, the newly elected president, Jair Bolsonaro, is ready to sacrifice the Amazon rainforest to agribusiness. Most recently, the Polish president, Andrzej Duda, defended the country\’s reliance on coal, stating at the UN climate change summit in Katowice that: \”The use of one\’s own natural resources, in Poland\’s case on coal, and basing energy security on them is not in conflict with the climate protection and with progress in climate protection.\”

Way to overcome the impasse

How to bridge this enormous gap between science and policy? How to help the general public, policymakers and businesses understand both the urgency and the complexity of the situation, and get on board with taking direct action?

The World’s Future simulation has been created to address this challenge. In this experience, participants become country leaders and collaboratively steer the fictional world from now till around 2030. As players make virtual decisions on their country\’s energy mix, R&D expenditures, environmental policy, and socio-economic growth, they get a very realistic feel of what may happen if we don’t take climate change seriously.

We intentionally chose the name for the simulation to move players from the sphere of abstraction and make them feel real responsibility for what may become our world’s future,” explains Michalina Kułakowska, one of the game designers. However they use their power will soon materialize, either in the form of simulated catastrophe or – quite the contrary – an innovative idea that may enhance a successful transformation.

The simulation, based on the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals, may be played in person or online, in both cases actively engaging players in revealing the interconnections between the global goals. With the “big picture” displayed, the most pressing challenges of our time become more tangible, easier to embrace and address:


It really helps to better understand the complexity of the ‘real world’, why changes are so slow, why solutions are not put into place, why international cooperation is so complicated. 

–  Participant of The World’s Future session, October 2018, Switzerland (FiBL)

What awaits players? Temptations, short-term gains and personal interests may come into play. There may be disappointment and frustration over negative repercussions of what seemed like a silver bullet. Tough negotiations and difficult compromises can be compensated with a groundbreaking solution:

The game translates a lot of knowledge and, in this particular case, threats into quite lively experiences. These last much longer in the minds of the players than the same information in the form of books.

 – Participant of The World’s Future session, October 2018, Wuppertal Institute

 

The array of emotions triggered by play is hard to describe. Real experience is always better than words, thus we encourage you to check “The World’s Future” for yourself. Visit its website or contact us to immerse in a truly transformative experience and gain an impetus for real action! 

water-energy-nexus

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Aleksandra Solińska-Nowak

Aleksandra Solińska-Nowak

20 min read

17.07.2018

Understanding The Nexus Approach

The nexus approach

The Latin term „nexus” refers to the act of binding something together. The concept was first mentioned in the context of resource management in 1980s, especially in connection with the UN University Food-Energy Nexus programme. It was not until the Bonn2011 Nexus Conference, however, that the nexus approach gained relevant prominence. Guided by the principle of integrating management and governance across sectors and scales, the conference argued that the nexus approach can improve water, energy and food security, at the same time supporting the transition to a green economy, which is expected to increase resource efficiency and provide greater policy coherence. 

The need for a more integrated, holistic approach both to the resource management and to the global policy in general became even more undisputable with the adaptation of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in 2015. To simultaneously address the 17 major priorities, ranging from poverty and hunger alleviation, gender equality, industry development to sustainable production and environment protection, we are all required to recognize the interrelatedness and interdependence of these, partially overlapping or competing, goals, and to grasp the complex net of interactions, trade-offs and synergies that they create. Advancing towards a more stable and sustainable future depends thus on the “nexus thinking” or “systems thinking” that, instead of just looking at individual components and short-term quantitative outcomes, recognizes feedbacks and connections, and promotes concerted action and cooperation on a global scale across sectors, time and space. 


From time to time a woman in black approaches each department, passing them a thick pile of documents. Upon her arrival, the group discussions become even more stormy. It means that a new problem or request has been submitted by the society. Departments’ heads are scanning the documents quickly, trying to prioritize issues the group has to address. The time is running, members of the groups seem to be far from reaching a consensus, and a stream of new issues is still flowing. Suddenly, a collective sigh of relief may be heard – the water department voted for a policy unanimously. The head of the department leaves to pass their proposal to the council. Just in time! Almost simultaneously, a moderator rings a bell and asks the buzzing crowd for attention.

Why do we need the nexus approach

A range of socio-ecological processes, such as population growth, economic development and urbanization have contributed to an overall change in the way land and natural resources are exploited, processed and consumed. Growing demand and unsustainable management have increased man’s ecological footprint and caused modification or degradation of the natural resource base in many areas of the world. The situation is further exacerbated by pollution and human-driven climate change, which results in uncertainty and less reliable food and water supplies due to e.g. intense extreme events (such as droughts or floods). Such pressures may in long-term drive social-ecological systems across critical thresholds, leading to irreversible water, energy and food crises. To avoid this situation and align with the Sustainable Development Goals, we need a shift towards improved resource efficiency, demand management and more sustainable consumption patterns. 

The nexus approach can guide a transition to sustainability, by reducing negative impacts within the system and producing gains that outweigh the costs connected with investing in better policy and “greener” technology. Based on a better understanding of the interdependence of water, energy and food, this integrated approach identifies multilateral beneficial solutions to resource management (e.g. water and waste recycling, investing in green infrastructure or renewable sources of energy) and provide way to  meet the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.

Like most “serious” games, does not rely on rivalry or single goal completion but presents the array of challenges and opposing interests that the players have to face to determine their own priorities.

Nexus Game

Like most “serious” games, does not rely on rivalry or single goal completion but presents the array of challenges and opposing interests that the players have to face to determine their own priorities.

Messy business

While the benefits of a nexus approach for individuals and societies are unquestionable, little is known how to advance this approach, especially in a multi-stakeholder environments. Global challenges that involve many diversified groups of stakeholders taking decisions under uncertainty, require collaboration on many different levels. The complex nature of socio-ecological system is characterized by messiness, with many processes happening at the same time. Without a proper understanding of the variables, policymakers may solve one problem but unintentionally generate another one, as illustrated, e.g. by the misconceptions connected with the renewable sources of energy. Many people may think that because the renewables cannot generally be over-exploited or depleted, they do not involve any negative impacts. Meanwhile, overdependence on them may highly interfere with other nexus sectors. For example biofuels, and to some extent hydropower, demand more water per unit of energy produced compared to fossil fuels. They also involve a risk of negative energy gains. For instance, corn grown in the US for energy purposes may require more calories of input than it eventually produces. As a consequence, unless integrated in multi-use systems, biofuels may actually compete with food production for water, potentially decreasing the resilience of food production systems.

Many attempts to identify an optimal path towards sustainability fail due to over-reliance on hard data and inadequate appreciation of the diversity of ways decisions are made. People often erroneously assume that their choices stem from rationality. Meanwhile, we are never equipped with perfect information on the situation and are prone to show bias, rely on misconceptions and our individual understanding of the issue, and favor short-term gains rather than longstanding solutions. Add to it differences in human values or interest and uncertainty that underlies our future, and the complexity of collaborative decision-making becomes evident. There is myriad of perspectives the sustainability transformation may be approached and no one “optimal” answer to it exists. This raises the question: How to advance a socially accepted solution? The solution that is agreed upon by the majority of stakeholders and offers possibilities to address all the nexus sectors and their complex interactions?

The Nexus Game offers a possibility to explore the dynamics of transboundary resource management. The game setting contains two countries sharing a river basin and thus facing interlinked challenges of water, energy and food production and consumption. By assuming the roles of the prime ministers, water ministers, energy ministers or agriculture ministers, the players enter into inter-government and international negotiations in order to meet the growing people’s demands and at the same time achieve sustainable development in both countries.

Social simulation to explore the nexus approach

There are many ways the complexity of water-energy-food nexus may be explored, however the best option is always to actively engage the stakeholders. Activities that enable people to collaboratively explore alternative scenarios offer space for creativity required to discover brand new paths, and enable the participants to understand competing interests and worldviews, which is a starting point for negotiating a consensus. In this context social simulations are gaining recognition, as a tool for triggering involvement and increasing public awareness on many serious issues. Simulating the reality of socio-ecological dilemmas, they help “players” immerse in their roles and gradually discover the complex landscape of problems, responsibilities and opportunities. 

The Nexus Game is a good example, as it offers a possibility to explore the dynamics of transboundary resource management. The game setting contains two countries sharing a river basin and thus facing interlinked challenges of water, energy and food production and consumption. By assuming the roles of the prime ministers, water ministers, energy ministers or agriculture ministers, the players enter into inter-government and international negotiations in order to meet the growing people’s demands and at the same time achieve sustainable development in both countries. Their task is not easy, taking into consideration the interlinked pressures, such as the unpredictable rainfall (resulting in floods or droughts) and the shrinking natural and monetary resources. The decisions they make receive almost immediate feedback, as e.g. erroneous distribution of water tokens negatively affects power generation or agriculture production. Consequently, throughout the game, the participants may discover a number of dependencies existing across and within water, energy and food systems and learn that sustainable resource management requires forward looking and making difficult choices between meeting current needs and investing in developments technologies that may positively affect their countries’ production and consumption trends. 

As noticed by Mochizuki et al. (2018), one of the significant characteristics of the game is that the players observe not only the benefits but also trade-offs connected with reducing resource use and transition to low-emission options. For example, an improved coal power plant burns coal at a higher temperature, reducing coal input and GHG emissions but increasing water footprint. A micro-hydroelectric plant, on the other hand, although cleaner, depends highly on water availability and may be ineffective in times of drought. By highlighting these inevitable “costs” that have to be born, the players are able not only to gain a more holistic perception of the system, but also understand the dilemmas of policy-making under uncertainty.

The Nexus Game, like most “serious” games, does not rely on rivalry or single goal completion but presents the array of challenges and opposing interests that the players have to face to determine their own priorities. While exploring the simulated world, the participants soon become aware of the need to communicate and collaborate.The two countries are highly dependant on the river their share, therefore individual and common interests blurry, creating a space for negotiations and compromises. All ministers are given partial authority and may focus solely on their sectors. However, if they don’t decide to cooperate within and and across the boundaries of their country, serious problems emerge in all nexus sectors. “I have learned that energy, agriculture, water ministers must collaborate with each other to better decision making. They are interdependent systems,” as one of the players summarized the experience.

The simulation, developed in collaboration with the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) in cooperation with the Sustainable Energy for All initiative, has been played, i.a., with the participants of the Dresden Nexus Conference, the employees of the African Development Bank in Abidjan (Ivory Coast) and water and energy professionals in Johannesburg (South Africa) and Cairo (Egypt). Many valuable insights and reflections emerged during these sessions, as most of the players agreed that the Nexus Game offers a playful, participatory and hands-on experience, which allowed them to learn from each other, view their opinions and gain a better understanding of the nexus approach to resource management. One of the participants of the Egyptian session admitted, for example, that the immersion in the simulated world helped him “see the big picture and evaluate situations objectively not subjectively, from a different perspective that usual”. Greater empathy, perspective-taking as well as the ability to perceive global challenges not as individual obstacles but as part of the bigger system, are among most appreciated lessons drawn by the Nexus players. Another Egyptian participant stated, for example, that via exploring the game’s world, he “learned how water is the propeller of development in every field, like food production, energy, and how it affects the pollution.” All these comments confirm our belief that social simulations are powerful tools to be explored while developing long-term strategies and policies, and may definitely support sustainable practices that will ultimately lead to a more fair, stable, inclusive and satisfied societies living  in harmony with Nature.

References

Hoff, Holger. 2011. Understanding the NEXUS. Background Paper for the Bonn2011 Conference: The Water, Energy and Food Security Nexus. Stockholm: Stockholm Environment Institute.;

Mochizuki J., Magnuszewski P., Linnerooth-Bayer J. (2018) Games for Aiding Stakeholder Deliberation on Nexus Policy Issues. In: Hülsmann S., Ardakanian R. (eds) Managing Water, Soil and Waste Resources to Achieve Sustainable Development Goals. Springer, Cham

Bengaluru_Qest

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Aleksandra Solińska-Nowak

Aleksandra Solińska-Nowak

Marek Jaskólski

Marek Jaskólski

15 min read

02.03.2018

Bengaluru Quest in Alpbach

How to trigger reflection and inspire to action in an hour

Alpbach experience

It is an early afternoon in the Austrian Alps. A wooden terrace of a mountain shelter is bathed in sunlight – the yellow umbrellas above the small tables look like daffodils’ flowers. Under each umbrella, a group of five or six people is discussing something animatedly. The tables they gather around are marked “Water Department”, “Public Health & Waste department”, “Infrastructure & Energy Department”, “Business department” and “Environment department”. There is also one additional table, moved a bit aside. It is the Council, whose task is to consider the policy proposals that are brought to them by the department’ heads.


From time to time a woman in black approaches each department, passing them a thick pile of documents. Upon her arrival, the group discussions become even more stormy. It means that a new problem or request has been submitted by the society. Departments’ heads are scanning the documents quickly, trying to prioritize issues the group has to address. The time is running, members of the groups seem to be far from reaching a consensus, and a stream of new issues is still flowing. Suddenly, a collective sigh of relief may be heard – the water department voted for a policy unanimously. The head of the department leaves to pass their proposal to the council. Just in time! Almost simultaneously, a moderator rings a bell and asks the buzzing crowd for attention.

A fiasco?

The moderator is standing next to the map of Bengaluru, and he has an important message to pass: Due to poor sanitation and water treatment system, the city is heading towards a major water crisis. Although the water department’s proposal to enforce new sewage treatment standards has been approved and financial sanctions are now imposed on developers who do not provide sewage treatment plants in apartments with more than 20 houses, illegal dumping of untreated sewage and waste continue. According to the marshals, at least one case of dumping happens every day. As a result, toxic forth has appeared on several lakes, and the Bellandur Lake has burst into flames. Meanwhile, the groundwater level has dropped dramatically and the exposure to toxic substances is still rising. The potable water supply scarcity becomes even more threatening, taking into account the rapid population growth…

 

The people are shocked. For the last thirty minutes they were struggling hard to find most appropriate solutions to the burning problems of the city, yet new issues seem to pop up out of nowhere. They listen to the moderator’s summary and prognozes, trying to draw valuable conclusions. Soon a new round of negotiations will begin and they will be given a chance to correct their mistakes…

The moderator is standing next to the map of Bengaluru, and he has an important message to pass.
The moderator is standing next to the map of Bengaluru, and he has an important message to pass.

Will Bengaluru have to be evacuated soon?

The Bengaluru Quest – the social simulation played at the Alpbach-Laxenburg Group in September 2017 – was inspired by such a real problem. The City of Bengaluru (until 2006 – Bangalore) in the state of Karnataka in southern India, is one of the fastest growing cities in the world (3.25% per year). Often referred to as India’s Silicon Valley, the city is the major hub for IT companies of the country, accounting for about 30–40% of the IT exports from India. With the presence of international IT giants (such as Google, Microsoft or Yahoo) and the largest number of high-tech start-ups of any Indian city, Bengaluru seems to offer unrivalled opportunities. However, as experienced by the participants of the social simulation in Alpbach, the city is struggling with a number of serious social and environmental problems, including:

 

Social inequalities:

As might be expected, the flagship companies of the rich IT-branch are located in well-stocked city parts. Their managerial staff and qualified employees live in modern, separated from poverty and dirt, housing estates (gated communities), but the majority of the city population are poor employees of informal sector. They live in slums with unacceptable sanitation conditions, where the poverty gap increases year by year alongside the dissatisfaction of the society.

 

Water scarcity

Although Bengaluru has a lot of rain at certain times of the year, supplying its citizens with sufficient clean drinking water is difficult. There are no rivers nearby. The city used to rely mainly on wells and over 600 artificial lakes (established in 16th century). In 1971 the city started pumping water from the River Cauvery 100km from the city and 300m lower in elevation. The costly (each kilo-litre of water takes 1.88 units of electricity to transport) process is nowadays used to supply nearly 60% of the city’s demand for water. However, the forecasts are worrying as the river\’s efficiency decreases year by year. What is more, an estimated 35%t of water meant for the city is wasted in leakages in pipe systems. The artificial lakes, meanwhile, are nowadays mostly converted into housing estates or other developments. What has complicated the situation is the falling groundwater table and low-rainfall being recorded in Kodagu, the river\’s birthplace, because of reckless destruction of fragile ecology. The process of falling groundwater table is also visible at Bengaluru, where in 1990 the groundwater table was at 30 meter deep, while in 2015 it was at 300 m.

 

Water-theft

The limited drinking water access is resulting in further social inequalities and even in criminal acts, as water theft is a common practice in Bengaluru. Threat of criminal liability does not help, even after the BWSSB (Bangalore Water Supply and Sewerage Board) introduced a penalty of six months of jail for stealing water. Only in 2016 over 80,000 households were found to have drawn unauthorized connections from the pipeline network of Bangalore Water Supply and Sewerage Board, and this was only the tip of the iceberg, as there is no data about the amount of water that is illegally pumped from the wells.

 

Water pollution

The sewerage network covers only 265 km2 of the city (around one third). Therefore it does not have the capacity to treat all sewage. Only 30% of the sewage is treated and the rest flows untreated into the existing lakes. The process of uncontrolled waste and illegal sewage dumping limits water access still further. Most of the lakes are nowadays contaminated, filled with domestic and industrial waste (the estimated sewage generated by the city is about 1400 millions of liters per day, the installed capacity of sewage treatment plants was in 2016 only 721 MLD). It all adds to the potable water scarcity, as most of the borewell water and tap water in Bengaluru is not potable anymore.

 

Toxic waste and burning lakes

The IT sector has created the problem of toxic e-waste in the city, the estimations showing a number of 20,000 tons of e-waste that is produced in Bengaluru each year. Although a formal recycling system for e-waste was set up, 90% of it is dealt with through the informal sector, which is harder to monitor. Unaware of the necessary safety measures, some incinerate the e-waste, releasing lead, mercury and other toxins into the air – and dump the rest, allowing pollutants to infiltrate the groundwater. This unprofessional waste disposal causes not only water contamination but also direct human hazard. Sometimes the level of contamination is so high that the water reservoirs are covered with froth which catches fire.

 

Encroachment of lakes by buildings

The population density of Bengaluru increased by about 425% in just ten years thanks to growing opportunities. In 2017, there were 17,000 people per square kilometer, compared to 4,012 ten years before. Bengaluru is now growing faster than ever, crossing the 10-million mark in 2013. To satisfy the demand for housing, most of the Bangalore artificial lakes have got encroached (legally and illegally) and converted to developmental activities.

 

Lack of greenery and air pollution

The process of city growth and sprawling development encroached the natural areas causing their radical decrease. The disappearance of green areas dramatically reduces their positive impact on heat and air pollution in urban zone. Traffic and uncontrolled emission of industrial exhaust is the reason why Bengaluru was ranked 63rd among 168 cities for PM 2.5 levels in 2015-16 (air pollution), far below standards prescribed by the World Health Organization.

All these problems have lead some scientists and researchers to conclude that the city of Bengaluru will become unlivable in a couple of years – with an alarming growth of built–up area, almost no potable water and the vegetation reduced to minimum, it will simply consume itself.

Can social simulations help us understand global challenges better?

The Bengaluru case offers an excellent example of a complex, multifaceted problem, whose understanding would require months or even years of extensive research and thorough analysis of variables and interconnections. Meanwhile, in case od Alpbach experience, the “players” had only an hour. What is more, rather than studying diagrams and facts, they got actively involved in the process of mock policy making. By assuming new roles of the city council and its different departments, they entered a simulated reality of a struggling city whose fate was left in their hands. An inflow of requests, petitions and letters from unsatisfied inhabitants reflected the multitude of overlapping and contradicting interests and needs the Bengaluru citizens really face. A division into rounds created additional tension, as the time pressure made the decision process even more hectic.

From time to time, signs of frustration could be observed, as the effort put in diagnosing a situation, framing critical issues, developing relevant policies, and passing them through the legislative process did not bring desirable outcomes. The city was evolving according to participants decisions – the map of the city was constantly updated by the moderator. And although the participants did they best to address all the urgencies, new problems always appeared, covering the map with warning signs.

It may seem from the above example that social simulations are designed to confront the participants with their incompetence or lack of strategic thinking. This is not the case. Social simulations throw participants in at the deep end to let them experience the complexity behind many global problems. Relying on a simple mechanism of cause-effect relation and the moderator\’s instant feedback, the Bengaluru Quest finally helped the participants discover the underlying interconnections and perceive the country’s situation more holistically.

Did they manage to secure the Bengaluru’s future in an hour? The answer is no. Yet, this was not the aim of the activity. Social simulations do not offer ready-made solutions to global problems. What they do is help people navigate the complexity behind such problems and to understand that an effective counteraction requires collaboration, smooth information flow, and ability to make trade-offs. Many participants of the Alpbach experience hadn’t heard about the Bengaluru’s situation before. They were shocked to hear that the “game” they “played” is in fact rooted in real data, and that the problems they were trying to address may soon lead India’s Silicon Valley to destruction. The Bengaluru Quest enabled them to immerse in this reality for 60 dreadful minutes and draw valuable conclusions.

Social simulations throw participants in at the deep end to let them experience the complexity behind many global problems. On the picture: Nexus Game, another great example of social simulation.
Social simulations throw participants in at the deep end to let them experience the complexity behind many global problems. On the picture: Nexus Game, another great example of social simulation.

Going beyond the Bengaluru case

The Bengaluru Quest is thus an environment for exploring behavioral, social and institutional challenges connected with sustainability transformation. By painful yet thought-provoking confrontation with a real-world case, participants may face a complex, ambiguous, and uncertain reality of modern policy making. The interactive and dynamic character of this process can lead to a deeper understanding and insights of a universal relevance. What can we do differently to avoid similar mistakes? How to ensure more safe and sustainable future for all? What is my individual responsibility in this process? These are all questions that emerged during a short session in the Austrian Alps.